苹果的未来该怎么走?

The world’s most valuable company needs another mega hit.
世界市值最高的公司现需另一款爆款产品。
“Our product pipeline has amazing innovations in store,” Tim Cook, the boss of Apple, declared on April 26th.
4月26日,苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克公开声称:“我们的产品线上即将有重大创新”。
He hoped to sound reassuring after the company reported its first year-on-year quarterly revenue decline since 2003.
自2003年以来,该公司公布的同比一季度财政收入首次出现下滑后,蒂姆·库克希望这番话能安抚人心。
But he was not convincing enough.
但他此番话难以服众。
苹果的未来摆脱窘境.jpg

Shares of Apple fell by around 8% in the hours after its results emerged, erasing more than $46 billion in market value.

结果公布后的几个小时,苹果股份暴跌了近8个百分点,市值蒸发多达460亿美元。
Investors’ immediate concern is the popularity of the iPhone.
投资者最为关心的是iPhone的畅销程度。
It accounts for the bulk of Apple’s revenues and profits; sales were 18% lower than a year ago.
它是苹果公司财政收入及利润的主要来源,销售额与去年同期相比降低了18%。
The broader smartphone market is sluggish, says Mr Cook.
库克先生称,整个智能手机大市场现今疲软萎靡。
Apple hopes that the flashy new features of the iPhone 7, which it is expected to introduce in September, will convince customers to abandon older models.
苹果指望iPhone7手机全新闪耀的功能将说服顾客放弃旧机型,该手机预计九月推出。
Until then, the company will probably face a further fall in revenue.
但在此之前,公司将极有可能面临财政收入的进一步下挫。
The bigger question that Mr Cook must answer is whether Apple will ever have another product as successful as the iPhone, the most lucrative in the technology business to date.
库克先生必须要回答的一个更大的问题是:未来苹果公司是否能再推出一款像iPhone一样成功的产品,iPhone是科技产业迄今为止利润最丰厚的产品。
Enthusiasm has waned for some of its other older products, such as iPads, and its newer ones remain niche offerings.
一些顾客对苹果其他老款产品的热情已渐渐减弱,各机型的iPad便是其中一例,并且其新款产品维持在一些专营市场发售。
The Apple Watch celebrated its first full year on the market on April 24th.
4月24日是苹果手表发行上市整一周年的纪念日。
It sold more in its first year than the iPhone did in 2007.
相较2007年第一代iPhone的上市首年度销量,它的销售额更高。
But today’s consumers are better primed to buy gadgets now than they were then; watch sales should be far higher.
然而现在的消费者应该远比之前更倾向于购置科技产品,手表销量本该远超目前的业绩。
The cost of the Apple Watch—which starts at $300—puts people off.
苹果手表以300美元开售的价格让很多人望而却步。
So does its dependence on a smartphone for most activities, such as providing directions.
苹果手表在提供导航等大多数功能操作上仍需依赖智能手机,这也是顾客不愿购买的原因。
The firm will sell a mere 8m watches in 2016, generating $4 billion in sales, thinks Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford C.Bernstein, a research firm.
桑福德·伯恩斯坦研究公司的分析师托尼·萨科纳吉认为,苹果公司2016年仅能售出800万只苹果手表,销售额为40亿美元。
One bright spot is Apple’s services business, which is expected to grow steadily.
苹果的服务业务是其一大亮点,服务业务预计发展稳定。
As it sells more gadgets—over 1 billion devices are in use—it can also sell content and services, and gain revenue from music, its app store and more.
现今有超过十亿的终端正在使用苹果产品,由于苹果卖出的产品越来越多,它同时也可以出售更多服务业务及服务内容,在音乐服务,应用商店以及更多领域中获得收益。
In the second quarter Apple had $6 billion in services revenues, more than for Macs or iPads.
在第二季度,苹果在服务业务上营收多达60亿美元,这是Mac或iPad各种机型所难以企及的数字。
What else could the firm come up with?
苹果公司还能推出哪些新产品呢?
That Apple has been working on an electric car is one of the worst-kept secrets in the technology business.
苹果研发电动车是科技领域人尽皆知的秘密。
Reported disagreements with German carmakers over control of users’ data may have halted a potential alliance.
据报导,苹果公司与德国汽车商在用户数据管理的问题上出现分歧,可能已经导致中止了俩家公司之间可能存在的合作关系。
Many also expected Apple to disrupt television.
许多人认为苹果会搅乱电视领域。
But Apple TV, the firm’s alternative to a set-top box and subscription, sells most shows and films à la carte, which becomes expensive very quickly. Its appeal is limited.
但作为苹果公司替代机顶盒以及订阅付费的一款产品,苹果电视以点单的方式对大多数节目及电影收费,很快会产生昂贵的费用,因而影响力也有限。
The problem, says James McQuivey of Forrester, another research firm, is that it will be difficult for Apple to come up with another single product as central to daily routines as the iPhone.
另一家研究公司福雷斯特的分析师,詹姆斯·麦克奎维则表示:问题的实质在于苹果很难再推出一款像iPhone般在日常生活举足轻重的单品。
Collections of devices in connected homes will matter more instead.
智能家居设备将转而变得越来越重要。
The exception may be augmented reality, but Apple’s rivals already appear to be ahead.
虽然增强现实技术可能是个例外,但是苹果的竞争对手似乎已在这方面取得领先。
Apple’s biggest problem is its past success.
苹果最大的问题在于其辉煌的过去。
It is the most valuable company in the world by market capitalisation because investors believe the firm can make new technologies popular.
从市场资本来说,苹果是世界市值最高的公司,因为投资者相信这家公司能让新科技流行起来。
Mr Cook, who took over as chief executive in 2011, soon before the death of the firm’s co-founder, Steve Jobs, has led Apple competently.
2011年,在苹果公司联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯逝世前不久,库克先生接任首席执行官一职,他出色地领导着苹果公司。
But there are lingering doubts about whether he can produce the sort of smash for which Jobs was so feted.
但是,人们依然心存疑虑,他究竟是否能推出一款当初令乔布斯那样名声大噪受欢迎的产品。


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